The Covid-19 Pandemic Has Only Just Begun

By Robert Roy Britt
Photo: Kena Betancur/Stringer/Getty Images

Why every U.S. city and county should brace for severe outbreaks, a possible second wave, and even a resurgence of the coronavirus later this year and next.

‘It’s all coming soon’

The first U.S. case of Covid-19 was reported on January 21, 2020. This chart shows the number of new cases each day since then, through April 7. Credit: Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine

“Unlike seasonal influenza, where the transmission chains get easier to break in the warm summer months, we cannot count on Covid-19 relenting simply because of a change of season.”

Time to prepare

72% of all counties probably already have an outbreak

Probability of ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks for the 3,142 counties in the United States. The chance of an unseen outbreak in a county without any reported cases is 9%. A single reported case suggests that community transmission is likely. Source: Emily Javan, Dr. Spencer J. Fox, Dr. Lauren Ancel Meyers

Second wave… and then more

Next season and beyond

Breaking the chain of transmission